almost
2009-09-07 10:37:40
Here's a little guide that will be geared towards helping to find future items and how to merch at your best.
I have spent the past few months making money off of merchanting, and I have actually quit skilling completely.
I have learned too much to throw all in here at once, but I will try to give as much as I cant think of right now.
There are two main types of merchanting - Price manipulating and Item flipping.
We will be dealing with price manipulation, but I will go into item flipping too because it is faster money and I like it better.
Price manipulation deals with buying an item out, causing the demand for it to go up, then selling for a higher price.
Items are generally harder to get and are bought at a higher price with this method than item flipping, but the increase in price will also be much larger.
Item flipping deals with buying an item at its low point and selling it later at its peak.
This is usually done within only a few days.
The profit per item is a bit less, but it is very quick and can be done with multiple different items at a time.
There are other types of merchanting too, such as update merching and "upgrade" merching, but those won't be covered.
Finding an item will be completely different depending on which type of merch you are doing.
Manipulation-
The main thing you are looking for is an item that is bought/sold often.
It can't be obtained easily outside of the grand exchange.
You don't want an item that costs a lot, such as a godsword, because you won't be able to get enough of them.
Items that have high skill requirements to make usually work well.
Items that are necessary for doing certain things and can't be replaced by other items work the best.
Flipping-
Looking at an item's 180 day graph will tell you if it will work well with flipping.
If it is somewhat flat, it won't work at all.
The more it looks like waves the better.
The height of the waves and how close the waves are together tell you how good the item will be.
You want them as high and squeezed together as possible.
The major factor in this is how much the item costs.
It is the opposite of manipulation, the higher the price the more and faster profit you will make.
Demand for the item doesn't usually seem to make much of a difference on how well it works.
Manipulation-
This is pretty simple.
Look at the item's 180 day graph, and the 30 day average line will show you about what the item's average price has been.
Compare that price to what the price is right now.
If it is high you might not want to use it.
You are looking for something kind of low compared to its average, but not something that is crashing.
Flipping-
This gets a little more tricky.
There are certain characteristics I have noticed with the good items to flip, and knowing them will help to decide if you should start buying the item.
An item will start out with a large hump, then the next hump will generally be smaller, then smaller again.
Each item has its average number of times it will do this, then start over with a large hump again.
This is never guaranteed, but just speaking in general.
Getting to know the behavior of certain items will help you know the perfect time to buy and sell.
You are aiming for buying around the time before it hits its new "big hump".
There are 2 specific times to start buying an item if you are item flipping.
You can buy while it is still crashing for lowest, which makes the most money but is much more risky, or wait until you see an increase then start buying at max.
If you buy early for low make sure you know the item you are dealing with and that it will be rising again, and not just continuing to crash.
A great method of finding out what an item is currently doing before the GE updates, no matter what type of merching you are doing, is putting in an offer for just one of the item.
If you try for market price and it gets sold to you for lowest, that item won't be coming up on its increasing point.
If it sells for mid, there is a good chance the item is about to even out and then start its rise.
If you can't get the item, you should go ahead and start buying it for max.
This method comes much more in handy with finding when to dump your item, which will be explained later.
Also, if you are working with an item that is very expensive, sometimes what you are looking for is a little different.
These items usually have a period where they just drop off, then go back up to where they were, creating a V shape in its graph rather than a wave.
You will want to buy at the bottom of the V shape when it hits its lowest point.
Manipulation-
Usually there is a "dump price" set for an item before you even start buying it out.
Most merch clans go by a percentage of the item's market price.
What percent you use depends only on how much money you clan has to spend on the item.
Most large clans will go with at least 100%.
You have to be looking out for signs that your item won't make the dump price though.
Once you start getting your item with change back, it is a good idea to start dumping.
The amount of time it takes to buy the item is the key factor though.
If it is taking you a while to get your item, the merch will be able to go on for a very long time.
It also means your clan is probably not the only ones buying the item at max, and that players needing the item are getting desperate enough to buy it.
Flipping-
Look at the item's 7 day graph and check the height of the last wave.
You want to sell BEFORE it gets near that price.
Also keep in mind what I said about how the humps tend to shrink each time.
Again, there are 2 specific times you can do this.
You could sell at max the day before the item evens out, or you could wait another day and the item's price will go up, but you will have to sell it at market or lower.
I prefer selling early at max, not because I profit more, but because I like to move on from one item to another in the shortest time I can.
The downside to selling earlier is that sometimes an item will just keep rising and rising.
If you wait until an item isn't raising anymore you will always get the most profit you can out of it.
The method I use for seeing how an item is doing is the same mentioned earlier with finding out when to buy an item.
I put up one of my items in the GE for max.
If I can sell it, I know not to dump my items yet.
And if it does sell, how long it took to sell tells a lot about when you will want to dump.
If you are working with one of those expensive items mentioned earlier, you will be waiting for the graph's V shape to be complete.
Sell your item just before it gets to the price it was at before it started to drop off.
This really only applies to price manipulation with a clan.
This is why basically every big merch clan fails.
There are simply too many people with too many of an item to just say that on this certain day everyone has to sell all of them and then expect no one to sell theirs early.
Then you have the people who waited for the dump price but now all the people who wanted the item and were willing to pay the high price for it have it because some people dumped early.
This leads to everyone trying to sell their item for the very lowest and junk trading them, usually resulting in no profit and sometimes loss.
This is why I don't ever buy into the big merch clans you see being advertised.
With SRL's merch clan you don't have to worry about this.
As long as everyone waits until the time is right to sell, nothing gets messed up.
There aren't 50k people here trying to sell the same item though, so I'm not worried about it.
I have spent the past few months making money off of merchanting, and I have actually quit skilling completely.
I have learned too much to throw all in here at once, but I will try to give as much as I cant think of right now.
Types of merchanting
There are two main types of merchanting - Price manipulating and Item flipping.
We will be dealing with price manipulation, but I will go into item flipping too because it is faster money and I like it better.
Price manipulation deals with buying an item out, causing the demand for it to go up, then selling for a higher price.
Items are generally harder to get and are bought at a higher price with this method than item flipping, but the increase in price will also be much larger.
Item flipping deals with buying an item at its low point and selling it later at its peak.
This is usually done within only a few days.
The profit per item is a bit less, but it is very quick and can be done with multiple different items at a time.
There are other types of merchanting too, such as update merching and "upgrade" merching, but those won't be covered.
Finding an item
Finding an item will be completely different depending on which type of merch you are doing.
Manipulation-
The main thing you are looking for is an item that is bought/sold often.
It can't be obtained easily outside of the grand exchange.
You don't want an item that costs a lot, such as a godsword, because you won't be able to get enough of them.
Items that have high skill requirements to make usually work well.
Items that are necessary for doing certain things and can't be replaced by other items work the best.
Flipping-
Looking at an item's 180 day graph will tell you if it will work well with flipping.
If it is somewhat flat, it won't work at all.
The more it looks like waves the better.
The height of the waves and how close the waves are together tell you how good the item will be.
You want them as high and squeezed together as possible.
The major factor in this is how much the item costs.
It is the opposite of manipulation, the higher the price the more and faster profit you will make.
Demand for the item doesn't usually seem to make much of a difference on how well it works.
When to buy
Manipulation-
This is pretty simple.
Look at the item's 180 day graph, and the 30 day average line will show you about what the item's average price has been.
Compare that price to what the price is right now.
If it is high you might not want to use it.
You are looking for something kind of low compared to its average, but not something that is crashing.
Flipping-
This gets a little more tricky.
There are certain characteristics I have noticed with the good items to flip, and knowing them will help to decide if you should start buying the item.
An item will start out with a large hump, then the next hump will generally be smaller, then smaller again.
Each item has its average number of times it will do this, then start over with a large hump again.
This is never guaranteed, but just speaking in general.
Getting to know the behavior of certain items will help you know the perfect time to buy and sell.
You are aiming for buying around the time before it hits its new "big hump".
There are 2 specific times to start buying an item if you are item flipping.
You can buy while it is still crashing for lowest, which makes the most money but is much more risky, or wait until you see an increase then start buying at max.
If you buy early for low make sure you know the item you are dealing with and that it will be rising again, and not just continuing to crash.
A great method of finding out what an item is currently doing before the GE updates, no matter what type of merching you are doing, is putting in an offer for just one of the item.
If you try for market price and it gets sold to you for lowest, that item won't be coming up on its increasing point.
If it sells for mid, there is a good chance the item is about to even out and then start its rise.
If you can't get the item, you should go ahead and start buying it for max.
This method comes much more in handy with finding when to dump your item, which will be explained later.
Also, if you are working with an item that is very expensive, sometimes what you are looking for is a little different.
These items usually have a period where they just drop off, then go back up to where they were, creating a V shape in its graph rather than a wave.
You will want to buy at the bottom of the V shape when it hits its lowest point.
When to sell
Manipulation-
Usually there is a "dump price" set for an item before you even start buying it out.
Most merch clans go by a percentage of the item's market price.
What percent you use depends only on how much money you clan has to spend on the item.
Most large clans will go with at least 100%.
You have to be looking out for signs that your item won't make the dump price though.
Once you start getting your item with change back, it is a good idea to start dumping.
The amount of time it takes to buy the item is the key factor though.
If it is taking you a while to get your item, the merch will be able to go on for a very long time.
It also means your clan is probably not the only ones buying the item at max, and that players needing the item are getting desperate enough to buy it.
Flipping-
Look at the item's 7 day graph and check the height of the last wave.
You want to sell BEFORE it gets near that price.
Also keep in mind what I said about how the humps tend to shrink each time.
Again, there are 2 specific times you can do this.
You could sell at max the day before the item evens out, or you could wait another day and the item's price will go up, but you will have to sell it at market or lower.
I prefer selling early at max, not because I profit more, but because I like to move on from one item to another in the shortest time I can.
The downside to selling earlier is that sometimes an item will just keep rising and rising.
If you wait until an item isn't raising anymore you will always get the most profit you can out of it.
The method I use for seeing how an item is doing is the same mentioned earlier with finding out when to buy an item.
I put up one of my items in the GE for max.
If I can sell it, I know not to dump my items yet.
And if it does sell, how long it took to sell tells a lot about when you will want to dump.
If you are working with one of those expensive items mentioned earlier, you will be waiting for the graph's V shape to be complete.
Sell your item just before it gets to the price it was at before it started to drop off.
The importance of not dumping early
This really only applies to price manipulation with a clan.
This is why basically every big merch clan fails.
There are simply too many people with too many of an item to just say that on this certain day everyone has to sell all of them and then expect no one to sell theirs early.
Then you have the people who waited for the dump price but now all the people who wanted the item and were willing to pay the high price for it have it because some people dumped early.
This leads to everyone trying to sell their item for the very lowest and junk trading them, usually resulting in no profit and sometimes loss.
This is why I don't ever buy into the big merch clans you see being advertised.
With SRL's merch clan you don't have to worry about this.
As long as everyone waits until the time is right to sell, nothing gets messed up.
There aren't 50k people here trying to sell the same item though, so I'm not worried about it.