SRL Archive - News and General

this idea came to mind when i read the osr patches and noticed they changed the ping/pid system thing so that all players have a fair chance at getting first hit in the duel arena.

I haven't really been following srl for the past few months because of school and things so I have a few questions:

1) Do we still have reflection for osr?
2) Do you think this is a good idea? (read below)

I was thinking about an old rsbuddy autostaker, and I want to develop one for srl.

using the martingale system, the script would generate profit.

There is a .09766% (1/1024) ((1/2)^10) chance that a person can lose their entire 102,400,000gp (100,000 x 2^10) cash stack when using the martingale system. However during that statistical 1024 rounds of staking, a person would theoretically generate 102,400,000gp (100,000 x 1024) and break even. but winning is not linear and therefore you could possibly lose your entire cash stack on the first round of making 100k, or go infinate rounds and never lose 10 games in a row.

but if a reflection script could click within a few milliseconds of the duel match starting, guaranteeing or increasing chances of first hit in a boxing match consisting of say 20 hits each, the win rate would be 52.5% (21/40), not 50%. So the chances of losing 10 games in a row would decrease to .05847% ((19/40)^10). This means that your chances of losing your entire 102,400,000gp cash stack during 1024 games decreases to 1/1710, netting an infinite overall averaged profit of 68,600,000gp per 1710 rounds played ((1710 - 1024) x 100,000).

12 rounds an hour = 1710 rounds in 6 days, 12 days if only botting 12 hours of the day (the smart thing). 68.6m every 12 days = 171.5million gp per month. osr gp goes for what, $2/m? thats $300/month after membership, electricity, paypal/WU fees, etc, etc.

$300/month for running a single script 12 hours a day sounds pretty good to me, idk about you guys.

Have you tested to see whether PID system really has changed so that whoever clicks first, hits first? Jagex has a way of promising things that don't work as well as they'd hoped.

Extermly interesting. Just a few ideas I'm going to throw in.
-You need a big start up pile (in your calculation you say 102m which is $204?)
-Bans (Would lose a large amount of cash)
-You're going through a HUGE amount of rounds, meaning the chances are you will get cleaned from time to time (though after re-reading I think you factored this.
-IF you did make it, I'd be interested in using it and would help with bug fixing and keeping it updated.

Reflection is still working, but we dont have an include..
I just put some functions/hooks + auto updater in 1 script so we have a few functions working. But its far farrr from completed

Logic behind it makes sense, however you can't have a constant factor in of your 52.5% as there are extraneous variables such as lag, misclicks ect. However, I used a staking bot a while ago, and made money all day. Ive been gone for a while, however I would be more than happy to help with this.

If it's not based on the pid system, surely everything comes down to ping to the server?

I know this is a gravedig, but just incase anyone ever thinks about using the martingale method:

Assume the following situation:
We have 1B gp, and we want to get 2B gp.
Using martingale with 1m base bet, that would take us 1k rounds (or wins).
To get cleaned you would have to lose 10x in a row! That's crazy good right?
Nope, 1/1024 chance to get cleaned on a repetition of 1k is just not worth the time.
Sure your bank goes up and you'll perhaps need a 11x loss to get cleaned, but even that will happen.

Also imo you'll always get cleaned if you do enough 50/50 stakes.
Because if you do lets say 10k stakes, chances are you'll have that 20-30 bad streak sooner or later.

I myself never bother with 50/50 and only odd stake (stalls/stats when non max)

Agreed. Personal experience, I learned the hard way that Martingale seems good and basically foolproof, but fails (unless you quit staking while you're on top). Wish I had taken my psyc courses before.

Around five years ago I used Martingale with an insurance of 15 losses and was completely cleaned for around 6B. I started with a base cash stack of 10m, and everything was smooth sailing, since Martingale ends up lulling you into a false sense of security. Lose once? No problem. Lose four times? Was a bit more tense but whatever. Lose eight times? Stressful, but Martingale saved the day. Oh, ****, I just lost 15 times. That wasn't supposed to happen!

Oh wait, it was.

The thing about Martingale is that you have to, probability decrees, get cleaned eventually. There is always a chance that you will lose X amount of times in a row. People get super confident, as I did, staking after staking, and eventually lose. It could take you two years but you will get cleaned.

The people that come out on top are the guys who take a lot of time to ensure superior PID, style switching (when it existed) and other micro tactics that form an overall advantage over time. Others resort to DDOS and other more dirty tactics.

People say that they can just quit while they're on top (e.g. what if I decided to stop with the 6B), but gambling psychology simply doesn't work that way. Winning money gives you a mild-intense high, and since Martingale provides a secure-recovery-guaranteed sense, there's no perceived reason to stop. This is obviously worse if you are already prone to other addictive behaviors.

DON'T DO IT unless you've calculated the math and tradeoffs first!

:)